With barely 100days left for the present govt, the battle lines for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections have already been drawn up.
The razzmatazz of political campaign seem to be started building up slow fire to be galvanized into a full blown inferno in the nick of time for the elections somewhere in early May 2019.
The Opposition Mahagathbandhan ( The Grand Opposition Alliance) formed with Mamata Banerjee of West Bengal blowing the trumpet on 19th January in Kolkatta.
At a mammoth rally organized by West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee of Trinamool Congress
The air rant with chorus of ‘oust Modi and BJP’.
The speakers from Mamata to Mayawati ,Akhlesh to Arvind Kejriwal , MKStalin to Mallikarjun Kharge ,Chanderbabu Naidu to Devgowda ,all spoke in one tone and pledged by the unity of strength.
The allies though of of disparate ideologies, united with sole aim of dislodging and defeating the Prime Minister Modi and BJP as a matter of fact.
The BJP mocking at the Gathbandan by claiming that the motely combination with varied political agendas offered much less viable alternative without a clear leadership.
In his inimical style Prime Minister Modiji said scornfully at a rally in Dadra & Nagar Haveli about Kolkata Gathbandan “They have gathered to save themselves from BJP.I can hear screams of ‘bachao, bachao,bachao”.
Rahul Gandhi is upbeat at the popularity chart, though still questioned to be closer to the personal popularity of Prime Na r e n d e r M o d i.
He has ,perhaps ,now mastered the art of persistent attacks on Modi and put BJP on the defensive both in the Parliament and outside .The issues of farmers woes, Rafale , joblessness,runway of business tycoons, fuel price, demonetisation, are some of the failures of governance giving enough ammunition to Rahul Gandhi to flaunt his arms in attacking Modi Government consistently.
The winning of Assembly elections in the main heartland states, Rajasthan , Madhya pradesh, Chhattisgarh have been a shot in the arm of Rahul to bolster his personal popularity and image.
To cut short the story ,the elections of 2019 is not going to be a cake walk for Modi and BJP.
To understand the answer to the question Will Modi win again ?
let us have a look at the Pan India presence of BJP .
This should help to monitor the barometer of overall strength and chances of winning at the hustings in May 2019.
A STATES WITH NO BJP SEATS
1/ Sikkim BJP Zero
2/Mizoram BJP 1
3/Tamil Nadu BJP Zero
B . STATES BJP PART OF GOVT.
1/ Meghalaya BJP 02 seats out of 60
2/ Nagaland BJP 12 seats out of 60
3/ J&K Assembly dissolved
4/ Bihar BJP 53 seats out of 243
C . STATES WHERE BJP IS NOT PART OF GOVT.
1/ Andhra BJP 04 seats out of 175
2/ Kerala BJP 01 seat out of 140
3/ Punjab BJP 03 seats out of 117.
4/ West Bengal BJP 03 seats out of 294
5/ Telengana BJP 05 seats out of 119
6/ Delhi BJP 03 seats out of 70
7/ Orissa BJP 10 seats out of 147.
D BJP IS IN CLEAR MAJORITY IN 07 STATES ONLY OUT OF 29 STATES.
1/ Uttar Pradesh BJP 312 seats out of 403
2/ Haryana BJP 47 seats out of 90
3/ Gujrat BJP 99seats out of 182
4/ Uttarakhand BJP 56 seats out of 70
5/ Himachal Pradesh BJP 44 seats out of 68
6/ Tripura BJP 35seats out of 60
7/Aruna Chal Pradesh BJP 48seats out of 60
E THE STATES BJP LARGEST PARTY
1/ Assam BJP 60 seats out of 126.
2/ Maharashtra BJP 122 seats out of 288
(Running govt with support of allies. Like Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and Independents inAssam.)
From the above statistics it is evident that BJP is in command of 07 states only on their own strength and mostly in alliance in other states leaving a chunk of states in southern belt with no or just a mere namesake presence only.
Whereas the Congress has improved its position in Northern belt .having Govts in four states, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh ,Punjab .
In southern belt Congress is in drivers seat with JDS in Karnataka and in very good standing in Kerala.
Recently in close affinity with CM Naidu in Andhra Pradesh.
Will Modi Win? Yes and no. .
Yes because BJP has still presence in 14 states out of 29 states and with more dedicated cadres at the grass roots and to bolster the Party’ chances of winningThe Prime Minister will have to instil confidence of Inclusive India and pooh pooh the idea of Hindutva laced policies for attracting genuinely the voters to vote for him again.
However the social benefits could be vote wielding ones—-LPG Cylinders ,better roads on national level and Swatch Bharat yojna,Beti Bachao,start ups could be strong tangble achievements to boast of and appreciated by the people
No because of the failures of good governance the middle class voters, who formed the foundation of Modiji and BJP success in 2014, have drifted away from BJP and are unlikely to vote again. This group is in haste and do not want to go with a person who have bellied their hopes .
The last four years have been scenes of a broken nation on religious ethnic and political lines. Disgusted and disgruntled one stood stupefied even to oppose the fallouts of such erroneous acts, by way of raping of 8 or 17 years old girls with no redressal measures being taken to assuage the victims.
The Centre andstate govts failed to stand on moral grounds and did not show firm will to bring the culprits to book ,instead maintained stoic silence to allow situation to the point of no return.
Secondly the high performance of Congress and Rahul Gandhi in wooing the voters by sincerely alleviating farmer’s problems , highlighting and promising the youths for jobs ,small traders with transparent opportunities to prosper can create a big dent in the vote bank of BJP and Modi .He has shown the results and fulfilled the promises made and need not to be underestimated by any stretch of imagination.
Also Congress being old Political Party has gone through ups and downs and hence capable of rejuvenating with its cadres glued to the principles of inclusive India politics.
The ball is set in motion and let us see where it stops.