BATTLE OF 2019 LOK SABHA ELECTION.Will Modi Win Again?

With barely 100days left for the present govt, the battle lines for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections have already been drawn up.

The razzmatazz of political campaign seem to be started building up slow fire to be galvanized into a full blown inferno in the nick of time for the elections somewhere in early May 2019.

The Opposition Mahagathbandhan ( The Grand Opposition Alliance) formed with Mamata Banerjee of West Bengal blowing the trumpet on 19th January in Kolkatta.

At a mammoth rally organized by West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee of Trinamool Congress

The air rant with chorus of ‘oust Modi and BJP’.

The speakers from Mamata to Mayawati ,Akhlesh to Arvind Kejriwal , MKStalin to Mallikarjun Kharge ,Chanderbabu Naidu to Devgowda ,all spoke in one tone and pledged by the unity of strength.

The allies though of of disparate ideologies, united with sole aim of dislodging and defeating the Prime Minister Modi and BJP as a matter of fact.

The BJP mocking at the Gathbandan by claiming that the motely combination with varied political agendas offered much less viable alternative without a clear leadership.

In his inimical style Prime Minister Modiji said scornfully at a rally in Dadra & Nagar Haveli about Kolkata Gathbandan “They have gathered to save themselves from BJP.I can hear screams of ‘bachao, bachao,bachao”.

Rahul Gandhi is upbeat at the popularity chart, though still questioned to be closer to the personal popularity of Prime Na r e n d e r M o d i.

He has ,perhaps ,now mastered the art of persistent attacks on Modi and put BJP on the defensive both in the Parliament and outside .The issues of farmers woes, Rafale , joblessness,runway of business tycoons, fuel price, demonetisation, are some of the failures of governance giving enough ammunition to Rahul Gandhi to flaunt his arms in attacking Modi Government consistently.

The winning of Assembly elections in the main heartland states, Rajasthan , Madhya pradesh, Chhattisgarh have been a shot in the arm of Rahul to bolster his personal popularity and image.

To cut short the story ,the elections of 2019 is not going to be a cake walk for Modi and BJP.

To understand the answer to the question Will Modi win again ?

let us have a look at the Pan India presence of BJP .

This should help to monitor the barometer of overall strength and chances of winning at the hustings in May 2019.

   A            STATES WITH NO BJP SEATS

1/ Sikkim                   BJP              Zero

 

2/Mizoram                BJP             1

 

3/Tamil Nadu           BJP               Zero

 

B .   STATES BJP PART OF GOVT.

 

1/   Meghalaya         BJP               02 seats out of 60

 

2/   Nagaland          BJP               12 seats out of 60

 

3/   J&K                     Assembly dissolved

 

4/  Bihar                  BJP           53 seats out of 243

 

 

C .        STATES WHERE BJP IS NOT PART OF GOVT.

 

1/   Andhra         BJP                 04 seats out of 175

 

2/   Kerala             BJP                 01 seat out of 140

 

3/ Punjab           BJP                 03 seats out of 117.

 

4/ West Bengal   BJP             03 seats out of 294

 

5/ Telengana     BJP               05 seats out of 119

 

6/ Delhi             BJP                   03 seats out of 70

 

7/   Orissa         BJP                   10 seats out of 147.

 

 

 

  D       BJP IS IN CLEAR MAJORITY IN 07 STATES  ONLY OUT OF 29 STATES.

 

  1/ Uttar Pradesh     BJP       312 seats out of 403

 

 2/ Haryana                 BJP       47 seats out of 90

3/   Gujrat                     BJP       99seats out of 182

4/   Uttarakhand          BJP       56 seats out of 70

5/ Himachal Pradesh   BJP       44 seats out of 68

6/ Tripura                     BJP     35seats out of 60

7/Aruna Chal Pradesh BJP     48seats out of 60

 

 

E    THE STATES BJP LARGEST PARTY

 

                          1/ Assam               BJP     60 seats out of 126.

                          2/ Maharashtra       BJP     122 seats out of 288

 

    (Running govt with support of allies. Like Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and  Independents inAssam.)

 

From the above statistics it is evident that BJP is in command of 07 states only on their own strength and mostly in alliance in other states leaving a chunk of states in southern belt with no or just a mere namesake presence only.

Whereas the Congress has improved its position in Northern belt .having Govts in four states, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh ,Punjab .

In southern belt Congress is in drivers seat with JDS in Karnataka and in very good standing in Kerala.

Recently in close affinity with CM Naidu in Andhra Pradesh.

 Conclusions,

Will Modi Win? Yes and no. .

 Yes because BJP has still presence in 14 states out of 29 states and with more dedicated cadres at the grass roots and to bolster the Party’ chances of winningThe Prime Minister will have to instil confidence of Inclusive India and pooh pooh the idea of Hindutva laced policies for attracting genuinely the voters to vote for him again.

However the social benefits could be vote wielding ones—-LPG Cylinders ,better roads on national level and Swatch Bharat yojna,Beti Bachao,start ups could be strong tangble achievements to boast of and appreciated by the people

No because of the failures of good governance the middle class voters, who formed the foundation of Modiji and BJP success in 2014, have drifted away from BJP and are unlikely to vote  again. This group is in haste and do not want to go with a person who have bellied their hopes .

The last four years have been scenes of a broken nation on religious ethnic and political lines. Disgusted and disgruntled one stood stupefied even to oppose the fallouts of such erroneous acts, by way of raping of 8 or 17 years old girls with no redressal measures being taken to assuage the victims.

The Centre andstate govts failed to stand on  moral grounds and did not show firm will to bring the culprits to book ,instead maintained stoic silence to allow situation to the point of no return.

Secondly the high performance of Congress and Rahul Gandhi   in wooing the voters by sincerely alleviating farmer’s problems , highlighting and promising the youths for jobs ,small traders with transparent opportunities to prosper can create a big dent in the vote bank of BJP and Modi .He has shown the results and fulfilled the promises made and need not to be underestimated by any stretch of imagination.

Also Congress being old Political Party has gone through ups and downs and hence capable of rejuvenating with its cadres glued to the principles of inclusive India politics.

The ball is set in motion and let us see where it stops.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Advertisements

THE WORLD WIDE STORIES YOU NEED TO KNOW

Canada

While the world is busy in building walls and concrete parapets to keep the immigrants at bay and out of reach, Canada brazenly announces to welcome I million permanent residents over the next three years, just one percent of the total population yearly.

This is in addition to the 286,000 permanent residents in 2017 and could reach 350,ooo this year.

The Canadian Parliament has confirmed its plans to

add 360,000 in 2020.

And 370,000 in 2021.

Ahmed Hussen ,Canada’s minister of Immigration ,Refugees and Citizenship(IRCC) said

“Thanks in great part to the newcomers we have welcomed throughout our history, Canada has developed into the strong and vibrant country we all enjoy,”

Hussen, himself an immigrant from Somalia, clarified that the influx will help Canada to offset ageing population and reducing birth rate while growing its labour force

Canada’s friendly stance towards new residents comes in contrast to other Western nations, including the United States, adopting more restrictive immigration policies to bar the immigrants coming and settling permanently.

Canada is dedicated to offering protection to refugees. IRCC has pledged $5.6 million to support global resettlement initiatives.

 

Japan

The recent revision to the immigration law in Japan opens a gateway for as many as 345,000 migrant workers to enter Japan in the next five years.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, however, has vehementally clarified amply that this new visa system does not constitute an immigration policy.

“This system is needed for talented foreign personnel to play bigger roles in Japan amid the nationwide labor shortage,” Abe said in justifying the revision at a Dec. 10 2018 news conference.

“We will clearly present a cap for the numbers and time frame for acceptance. This is not an immigration policy.”

He said further to the question of a reporter. Of Japan Times.

Experts ,however, differ with the Abe administration and admit that this new visa system epitomizes the contradictory realities surrounding it. They rather say that Japan has already brought hundreds of thousands of immigrants and the number will go on rising.

Akihiro Koido, a sociology professor who studies immigration policies at Hitotsubashi University in Tokyo, said “the law is an immigration policy regardless of Abe’s staunch denial.”

So get ready and pack up your bags off to Toronto or Tokyo.

SYRIA

Following Trump’s announcement last month to pull out American troops from the war ravaged Syria in about 30 days,

the American military has begun to withdraw some equipment, but not yet troops, from Syria to wind down the troops from the battle ground against the Islamic state.

There are about 2,000 troops — mostly Army soldiers and Marines in Syria currently.

Mr Trump has made no secrets of his desire to bring troops back home stating the mission of fighting the Islamic state has been accomplished.

The United States had intervened in Syria to work with local, Kurdish-led militias to fight the Islamic State, which had occupied the border between Syria and Iraq.

Before Mr. Trump’s decision to withdraw the troops, American air strikes against Islamic State targets in Syria were accelerated . According to American Air Force data released , American bombers conducted 1,424 strikes in November, a more than 60 percent increase from the month before.

Additionally, American Force reported that 221 civilians killed by the American-led air campaign in November — an increase in casualties similar to the number of civilians killed in the bloody culmination of the battle of the northern Syria city of Raqqa in October 2017.

Syria is now a balkanized version after pushing itself in a calamitous civil war since eight years .

Tehran is also celebrating the exit of American troops, as it may give Iran “solid control over the entire arc of the Levant from Baghdad to Beirut,” said Nicholas Heras, Middle East expert .in an interview with NBC NEWS.

Let us pray wisdom finally dawns on the world leaders of America and Russia to bring peace and tranquility to the people at large.

 

I love to loiter

I love to loiter and lounge

around

the emerald mountains and

prance

the long beautiful pastures

in bleary trance.

Loving the ephemeral moments

to my fill

I love to loiter and lounge

around

the dense bushes

unknown unbound

the stillness broken occasionally

,by

the cacophony of the

 animals

and

 the shrill of a strong wind.

I love to mingle in the crowds

of the hustling bustling

bazaars.

throbbing with cries of

Vendors men and women

displaying

myriad wares on the

pavements

of the huge macadamized

roads.

Haggling over the prices

With

The women vendors for a good meal of

fishes

my pleasant pastime

enjoying

their fury and frown

Smiles and serenity

 Amazing selling skills of

theirs

enthral me the most.

I love to loiter and lounge

around

the delightful Dal

lake

pedalling on the rippling waters

in a colourful shikara

sipping ‘Kahwa’

looking at the bewitching

marvels

of scintillating beauty of the

Surroundings..

KASHMIR AT CROSS ROADS.

Kashmir continues to be at the cross roads facing the multilateral onslaught primarily from Pakistan sponsored militants and the inbreed local militants infested with the germ of defiance, targeting the state police posts in support of Pakistan militants who are determined to keep the valley burning without respite thus pushing Kashmiris towards the suicidal upsurge against India.

Indian Army in relentless combat ,defending the sovereignty of India from the full fledged undeterred Pakistan armed attacks from across the Indo- Pakistan borders to the killing and maiming of the civilians and Army personnel on Indian side ,without respite or remorse.

There is no let up in hostilities from Pakistan even after the new Prime Minister Imran Khan ,who was seen as harbinger of peace and tranquility between the two Nations.

In an interview with ANI on Tuesday 2nd January 2019 PM Narander Modi ji said “ India whether under UPA or NDA has never opposed the dialogue with Pakistan . It has been consistent policy of the country – not Modi government or Manmohan Singh government –that there should be dialogue on Issues. We only say one thing ; dialogue can not be in the middle of noise of bombs and guns.”

Pakistan has never been serious, sincere in building up  relationship with India, always playing politics of revenge and retribution.

 The separators have successfully managed to keep the Kashmir conflict ticking by holding street protests ,occasionally unleashing bullets on a state Police soft targets thus pressurizing  the Central and state Government to pursue with the policy of repression and coercion against the protestors.

Four Jaish-e-Mohammad terrorists including a Pakistani national were killed in an encounter in Rajpora village of Pulwama district on Saturday 29th December 2018. Eleven civilians also fell to the bullets in an encounter that ensued between joint team of the Army ,CRPF and Special Operations Group   launched cordon–search operations on the basis of intelligence reports ,the terrorists fired on the team leading to the retaliatory fire ,killing the terrorists.

Source Times of India

On Friday 28th December 2018 about a dozen masked men were reported to wave ISI flags of Islamic state terror group inside the Jamal Masjid in Srinagar soon after Hurriyat leader Mirage Umar Farooq addressed the congregation .

However the joint Resistance leadership comprising Syeed Ali shah Geelani , Mirwaz,and jammu Kashmir Liberation Front Mohammed Yasin Malik while condemning the act said on Saturday ” in the past some elements at the behest of certain agencies and handlers have indulged in hooliganism in and outside of Jama Masjid.”            Source Times of India

 

 The alienation of people in the valley has widened to a great extent.

This alienation was seen in recent Srinagar by- poll when voter turnout was just 7.1 percent in contrast to assembly polls of 2014 where 65 percent voters came out for voting.

No attempt is being made by the Central government either to vouchsafe for people’s grievances to bring a modicum of peace in the battered valley.

Conclusions

 The muscular lethal weaponry military policy of   the Centre government has yielded no positive results.

We have seen that the terrorism masters of Pakistan radicalized the youth of Kashmir and militancy as such showing no signs of let up in their attacks on our Army and Police posts.

In fact the policy of repression followed so far have added more fuel to the rise of gory violence in terms of men and materials

Thus we need concrete  strategy to douse the fire of vengeance.

The lives of even common peace loving Kashmiri Muslims are  miserable otherwise eager to seek peace and prosperity. .

They need to be forged into a combative peaceful force to educate the warring groups to come to terms with Central Authorities.

A difficult proposition but with motivation of offering better future , this could become a bonanza for one and all.

There is no second thought to the fact Kashmir needs democratic and non violent strategy to achieve people’s aspirations.

The strategy should be to find political solution within the framework of India’ s Constitution.

In fact no one tried sincerely to put their thoughts on this proposition seriously till date.

BJP had clear cut mandate to do that but they frittered away energy on non political solutions and thus lost the opportunity at least for the present.

Kashmiris need to be heard. The process of dialogue with Kashmiris must start and go on till peace returns to the valley.

Last but not the least the true spirit of free debates on all ranges of issues including re-settlement of Kashmiri pandits should be allowed.

Across India spectrum the  representation of political , business, educational bodies  should be allowed to be heard and debated freely with Kashmiris so that they feel part of their big democratic country.   This would provide platform to express freely on the much needed National integration with Kashmir and help Kashmiris to be heard  and sought for .

 Let us think positively.

 

 

 

 

 

THE CITY OF THE SUN.

Srinagar

 Dal  lake  in  Morning Sun rays      THE CITY OF THE SUN                                                    

 I love my city immensely

The city of the Sun.

Swathed

In the morning Sunshine

Crimson cool but sublime

Sprakling the snow capped cliffs

of the faraway mountains

The river

Refracts the sunrays falling

on to the shimmering placid

waters.

The quietness is broken by the leap splash

Of the roaming frisking birds

A growling leopard

The village folks singing songs

While

rowing rickety boats

With their daily wares.

To sell..

I love my city so adorable

The city of the Sun.

adorned by the Natural beauty

Of

Turquoise waterfalls ,lakes with

Green pastures carpeted

all over with glorious

Fruit, flora and fauna

I love my city so immensely

The city of the Sun

Waking up

To the agog of its early risers

Leaping up on to their regular

chores.

Peddling off their bike

 listening

to the Tongas’ honking horns

Cars fleeting with a screech

And the scores of peddlers humming

Melodies of  the taste

getting

melted into the city crowds.

for the love of their

Lovables

I love my city immensely

The city of the Sun.

ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS AND AFTERMATH

The recent five Assembly state elections have brought big discernible gains to the Congress Party , winning three main Hindi speaking states , thus breaking up BJP’s aura of invincibility significantly.

The Congress is back with a bang under its leader Rahul Gandhi ,hitherto an object of derision and mockery, has demonstrated his leadership acumen and established his political claim as a serious credible alternative face in Lok Sabha elections 2019.

Starting with Gujrat by fighting fierce election battle visa vis Mr Narender Modi and Amit shah on their home turf ,Rahul Gandhi strategized skillfully to regain power in Karnataka.

And now won with pride the three Hindi heartland states, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.

 

Contrary to BJP Rahul Gandhi has struck a right chord by maintaining an appreciable balance between old Congress stalwarts and the new emerging leaders giving thereby adequate roles to one and all to forge ahead in strengthening the Party from the grass roots.

He has been digging new popular leaders from the lower strata of the party to be groomed for bigger roles in the near future. These leaders are chosen from every state ,an important step in the direction of making Congress Party self reliant one.

The reasons for the BJP losing election in all the five state assemblies could be to some extent attributed to the pursuit of its divisive agenda ,but also largely to not providing jobs to the restless educated youths of the country.

The youths have been important vehicle for motivating voters in 2014 elections for supporting Narender Modi who had promised abundance of   jobs and “Ache Din” for the Nation .

The other reason could be constant acrimonious personalized attacks on Rahul Gandhi and Nehru Gandhi family by no other leader than Prime Minister Narender Modi himself.

These invectives made Rahul combative one but did not speak the language of hatred ,instead addressed himself  to the problems of farmers, unemployed and the other underdogs of economic disparity,  thus winning hearts and votes both.

The hateful chastisement unleashed on Rahul has in realty invoked sympathy for him in the public eye.And more so ever the public in general cannot dismiss , forget the great sacrifices and positive contributions made to the growth of the Nation by the great leaders like Nehru and Indira Gandhi.

Prime Minister Modi has not ,perhaps, understood the real psyche of the Indian voter who primarily supported him and aligned with BJP for its development commitment but were dismayed to find nothing concrete happening even after being in office for four and half years .

The large number of voters have no affinity for the Hindutva politics of Modiji. They have definitely shifted their support as their hopes of economical revival have been belied .and not adhered to .

Also promises made at the time of 2014 elections for bringing major positive transformation in the country administration have not been fulfilled.

For a large section of people the issues of good livelihood ,good governance ,affordable housing, good roads form the electoral decisions rather than religion or culture.

Democracy provides options to change and thus people choose the best from the alternatives to suit to the demands of the time and society.

 

Conclusions

To base the current results as any indication for 2019 elections may be overrated but it does open up new vistas for the Congress and opposition to pride upon to work for better results in  the coming Lok Sabha elections .

For BJP it is  dire need to save the 2014 support base rather than resting on Mr Modi’s popularity which in any case has been dented largely.

What it needs to do is to shun the war of attrition and rework on its Hindutva plank .

BJP needs to make leadership of Modiji as dominant issue and forge alliance with diverse political interests.

 

 

 

 

THE INDIAN PRINCESS WHO SPIED FOR BRITAIN

20181208_085654

Noor –un-Nisa Inayat Khan, suggested as a strong contender for the face of new British pound 50 note, among others like Margatte Thather , Mathematician Alan Turing , physicist Stephen Hawk ,was Indian princess who spied for Britain in the world war 11 successfully.

Born on New Year’s Day in 1914 into royalty to an Indian father and American mother.

A direct descendant of Tipu Sultan ,the Muslim ruler of Mysore India.

She was musician playing piano , and a writer of short stories especially children stories.

She wrote the book “ twenty Jataka tales” in 1939 which established her as a writer.

Jataka Tales relate to the incarnations of lord Budha.

Her father Inayat khan was living in Baroda but left country to teach Sufism in the west. Sufism emphasizes the renunciation of worldly things, purification of the soul and the mystical contemplation of God’s nature.

He married an American lady Ora Ray Baker who changed her name to Begum Amina Sharda .after marriage. During world war 1 Inayat khan moved to Paris and eventually settled there.

Inayat khan died while on pilgrimage in India .

Noor with her mother had to look after the family and her three siblings.

Noor Inayat’s family moved to England in 1939 to volunteer for the war services. At the age of 25 in 1940 she joined the Women’s Auxiliary Air Force    (WA A F) and became radio operator.

She spoke French very fluently and thus was chosen in 1942 to join the special operations Executive(SOE) ,a secret British organization set up to offer resistance to Germany through “espionage and sabotage”.

She was flown to Gemany occupied France to work for the ‘prosper’ with code name ‘Madelina’.Many of her colleagues in the network were arrested soon after but she managed to move from place to place avoiding her detection and capture .

Despite Noor Inayat Khan had worked hard assiduously to master the art of translating Morse codes during combat training but some of colleagues in her intelligence network had second thoughts about her efficacy to do the job efficiently.

Her superior officer , Col.Frank Spooner wrote in her personal file

“Not overburdened with brains but has worked hard and shown keenness, apart from some dislike of the security side of the course. She has an unstable and temperamental personality and it is very doubtful whether she is really suited to work in the field.”

But her excellent radio skills compelled the special operations unit in June 1943 to send her to France under assumed name Jeanne Marie Renier, as a children’s nurse.   Though SOE wanted her to return to Britain but she rebuilt the network on her own. and made great success of her espionage job. She often changed her guise to evade detection .

She sent transmissions from Paris to London constantly and carried her work with great success and conviction conterary to the expections of London superiors.

Her work had assumed greater importance for war efforts to help safe deliveries to come in.

Her work had become crucial to the war effort, helping airmen escape and allowing important deliveries to come in.

In October 1943 Noor Khan was tricked into by a Frenchwoman and arrested by the Gestapo.

She had carelessly, rather unwisely, left the copies of of her secret signals and Germans used her radio to send these straight to the waiting agents in Gestapo. She escaped from the prison but was rearrested a few hours later. And sent to Pforzheim prison in Germany , keeping her chained in solitary confinement .She was tortured to reveal information but she did not yield to any physical torture. On September12, 1944 Noor Inayat along with three other SOE agents were transferred to Dachau concentration camp and on 13th September they were shot dead.

NOOR INAYAT KHAN was just 30 years old .

Noor Khan was posthumously awarded the George Cross in 1949.by Britain and the Croix de Guerre, with gold star, by France.

English Heritage ,a British group is planning to create a blue plaque in her name as a mark of respect.

In France, a primary school in Suresnes has been named after her. In 2014, a documentary, “Enemy of the Reich: The Noor Inayat Khan Story.” Has been made. The writer Arthur Magida is working on her biography .

In Gordon Square in London, where Khan once lived, there is a statue of her in a quiet corner. It is engraved with the last word she reportedly said before being executed at Dachau — “Liberté.”

Noor Inayat khan lived and died in the dedication of her Duty to the last of her breath.